| Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. | 3,690,500 | HKD 10.472 | 21/04/2006 |
| Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. | 3,113,000 | HKD 10.440 | 20/04/2006 |
| UBS AG | 1,404,500 | HKD 10.636 | 20/04/2006 |
| Brandes Investment Partners, L.P. | 3,411,500 | HKD 10.780 | 19/04/2006 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 387,000 | HKD 10.900 | 18/04/2006 |
上兩個星期買入SCMP(583)和魏橋紡織(2698). 其中SCMP正如預期中升過$3.0之後橫向發展. 睇過2005年的業績其實都算唔錯. 表面上利潤下跌了, 但主要是因為上年有一筆過出售便利店的收入. 由於南華早報都算是香港獨市生意, 其他英文報章, 例如 HK Standard同佢有一條街的距離, Financial Time, Asia Wallstreet Journal 主要是給財經新聞而且本地資訊太少. 獨市生意再加上強勁的本地經濟,豪宅, 名牌再加上失業率新低, SCMP2006年的廣告收入應會大幅上升. 另外, 從業績報告可見, SCMP吸取了之前胡亂投資新行業的教訓, 會主專注於出版的本業, 相信企業的風險大為減少.
由此可見SCMP本身是一間好質素的公司. 而且股價也下跌了不少. 應該算是合理價. 從披露權益中見到 Brandes Investment Partners LLP, 從2005年以來在$2.6-$3.0一直增持SCMP持股量己差唔多去到10%.
| 股東名稱 | 每股的平均價 | 持有權益的股份 | （％） | 日期 |
| Brandes Investment Partners | HKD 2.900 | 140,841,228(L) | 9.02(L) | 20/03/2006 |
| Brandes Investment Partners | HKD 2.899 | 127,923,028(L) | 8.20(L) | 18/01/2006 |
| Brandes Investment Partners | HKD 2.688 | 109,421,125(L) | 7.01(L) | 15/12/2005 |
| Brandes Investment Partners | HKD 2.889 | 97,056,875(L) | 6.22(L) | 06/12/2005 |
| Brandes Investment Partners | HKD 2.960 | 82,235,075(L) | 5.27(L) | 28/10/2005 |
趁禮拜日有時間, 仔細研究一下魏橋紡織的業績報告. 總覺得最近的股價下跌有點不合理. 超過20%的毛利?長, 50%的利潤增長. 雖然不如大,細摩的預期, 而且有經常配股的壞習慣. 但聽完魏橋紡織業績報告的廣播,董事長張波對於紡織業的了解和未來的趨勢的分析好專業, 令人 覺得魏橋紡織未來發展走高質素的中高檔高質素的方向正確, 配股集資也是必要的動作, 從而保持市場的領先地位. 2006年的發展將大部份在中國內需市場, 而且對於紡織業來講, Ecomonic of Scale是競爭的主要因素.
各種似乎都是利好因素. 但魏橋紡織的 P/E 現在卻只是 8.4. 而歷史P/E 是 12-13. 對於全國最大的紡織廠來講,似乎價格偏低. 應該有機會返回$12 以上. 希望快點反彈. 唯一擔近排大市高不勝寒, 星期一可能會下挫, 到時又會殺錯良民.
另外有朋友介紹了一隻傳媒股 (205), 今果然升10%, 但下星期有可能回吐. 應該小心才對.
相反, 魏橋紡織卻如之前預期中,在大升市中大幅下跌. 雖然評論說是因為業績未如理想中好. 但卻是在公佈業績兩天之後才下跌, 完全違反效率市場的原理.似乎內中另有玄機. 也許是入貨良機. 如能反彈, 今次有可能挑戰$13.
鞎瑕?? | 撣???? | ???頝? | |
SCMP | 2.8 | 2.75 | -1.79% |
 | 70%? | Pccw Limited | Hong Kong | Hong Kong (sar) | Hong Kong |  |
| 12%? | Hk Cable Tv Ltd | Hong Kong | Hong Kong (sar) | Hong Kong | |
| 7%? | Hutchison Global Communications | Hong Kong | Hong Kong (sar) | Hong Kong | |
Here some rumors that the competition of Chinese Newspaper market will intensified. More free newspaper will enter the market to share the limited advertising revenue. Base on the daily forecast line above, Next Media will drop to $4.12 next week. I sold the stock on hand with 30% profit and hope to buy it back below $4 shortly.
WeiQiao Textile raised around 4% on Friday. Based on the recent trend, it keep floating in the range of $11 and $13. Besides, by using the expontential regression, I expect this stock will drop back to below $12. In order to realized the profit, I sold a lot of my holding yesterday, which I bought at $10 per share, with 24% profit margin. I am expecting to buy it back at the price below $11.5 in next 2 weeks.
Recently another stock, South China Morning Post (0583.HK), catch my attention. This stock perfectly fit the requirement for a good stocks according to Warren Buffett's stock picking strategy, SCMP fit the following factors.
1. It has high average Return of Equity and Return of Asset ratio (consistantly above 12%)
2. It has low Debt/Equity Ratio, that means low pressure on interest increase.
3. It has a almost monopoly status in HK's English newspaper market.
Recently SCMP is suffering serveral unfavorable factors which cause the stock price to dropped quite a bit, including,
1. The listed HK stocks need not to put their announcement on the newspaper, that will cause 5%-10% reduction in the advertising revenue.
2. Competition on the classified post, from both other English news paper and Internet job Posting Sites.
3. Another possibe factor maybe the shrinking of the Engish Readers in HK after the decrease in influence of British government.
I estimate the buying point using SAS Forecast, this time instead of using Expotential Smoothing, which I tested with the history data, is less accurate that another methods, Stepwise AutoRegressive algorithm and have the following result.
